Wednesday, July 11, 2012

The Looming Silver Shortage to send prices to the Moon

Future Silver is like the future social security. Social security will be around 30 years in the future; however, the buying power will be reduced 75%. Silver will be the same value as today but you will get 1/4 of the silver for the future dollar. The miners will mine silver and we will use silver; however, the future costs to get the commodity will be increased by future regulation and fuel costs.

The Silver Prices Set to Explode to the Upside says Jeb Handwerger , mainly due to disruption in production sites in Bolivia Peru Mexico and Argentina , shortage of supplies , silver to be viewed more as a safe heaven as the US Dollar is nearing its top with the bad news coming from the job market in the US and the probability of the FED having to implement a QE3 , all is highly bullish for precious metals and especially silver , the last time the FED did QE2 silver prices soared from $18 to almost $50 an ounce . The one thing that is impossible to refute is that for the past decade(s) the amount of silver coming out of the ground has been about 9X the amount of gold. But on average their price differential has averaged about 50-60X. While gold stocks have only increased over the past 50 yrs, silver stock piles have been depleting as the uses of silver have been increasing. The USA's multi-BILL ounce stockpile is long gone as are many others. So something doesn't really add up here as silver is certainly used up while gold is not. Maybe the estimated 155-165K tonnes of gold mined throughout history is not a good number. But how far off could it be when most of the world's gold has been mined in the past 50-150 yrs? There are scientists who say that the naturally occurring Ag/Au in the earth's crust leads to a ratio of from 16 to 25X. While that conflicts with the 9X ratio that currently comes out of the ground, it would still support a price 2X to 4X higher than today's. In past centuries during bi-metalism and hard money standards, a 15-1 gold to silver ratio was often the norm. From 1350-1650 the gold to silver ratio ranged from 4 to 15. But around the mid-1800's the ratio started heading up as more silver was discovered and efficiently mined. Over the past 150 yrs as the silver monetary standard went by the wayside, the ratio has tended to live in the range of 30-100. But because of wildly fluctutating economic/currency cycles, the GSR has fluctuated wildly as well. A lot of silver has been used up in the past 50 yrs as technology has advanced. The world was fortunate that several multi-billion ounce stockpiles existed.
MAKE SURE YOU GET PHYSICAL SILVER IN YOUR OWN POSSESSION. Don't Buy SLV, or Futures or Pooled Accounts or any other BS paper silver product .Remember anything on paper is worth the paper it is written on. Go Long Stay long the bull market have even started yet

No comments:

Post a Comment