Barclays : SILVER exhibited its weakest month in two years

Barclays Capital’s commodity strategists this morning predict more tough sailing for the price of gold. They’re just as bearish on silver.
From the note:

On silver:

On the industrial demand side, silver imports into China were the weak spot in April’s trade data and reaffirm our negative view on the metal. Imports were down 28% y/y at 172 tonnes, while exports were up 21.5% y/y at 85.7 tonnes, keeping China a net importer of the metal. Once again, the weakness in silver was across the board, from powder to jewellery; unwrought silver suffered the sharpest decline at 29% y/y, while powder imports were down 28% y/y. Given that investor appetite also remains soft, silver is set to remain significantly oversupplied.
A considerable amount of weakness stemmed from the ETP outflows, which had been relatively resilient compared with gold until May. While outflows were still weak for gold in May, silver exhibited its weakest month in two years with outflows tallying over 500 tonnes. May’s activity almost eliminates inflows for the year to date, but outflows over the past two months only make up 3% of total holdings. Silver coin sales, on the other hand, have been quite strong. The US Mint has reported sales exceeding 100 tonnes every month so far this year with June on track to surpass 100 tonnes


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